Loser of the Week (Week 9)

POSTED BY Robert Reid, 29 October 2007

6 + 1 = 7, 6 + 2 = 6; LOSER OF THE WEEK's REVISED/IMPROVED LAMINATE-ABLE 'TWO POINT CONVERSION GUIDEBOOK'

Most coaches keep a cheat-sheet card around to tell them yay/nay on when to go for two. It needs updating. During the 2000 NFL season, Phil Simms, after Bill Parcells blew a two-point conversion call in a Jets vs Patriots game that cost the Jets a playoff slot, said, “Take the card and blow it up. Too often teams use it too quickly and it ends up costing them.” I agree. This is something coaches like Texas’ Mack Brown and Kentucky’s Rich Brooks should take note of.

Mathematicians have long searched out the ‘meaning of life, in terms of when you should go for a two-point conversion.’ Rutgers statistic professor Harold B Sackrowitz calls for more teams to go for two more often and at different times of the game. Math blogs like 2+2 have mathies computing the ‘expected value’ (chance of success multiplied by the value of success) and calculations wagering 'win equity' scenarios in various situations (vital bed-time reading). Often the mathies prefer going for two earlier rather than later. So if you're down 15, go for two first, so you can tie it up or go for the win on the next TD.

Such an approach assumes the opponent never scores again. To Loser of the Week (LoW)'s mind this is too risky for anything but the most defensive games. The coaches' two-point cheat sheet also doesn't differentiate between the high scoring game (aka FRENZY) versus the defensive slug fest (aka SLUG). If it’s mid third quarter and you’re behind 14-12 and you probably want to go for two; if it’s 53-51 after scoring a touchdown you may not want to go for the two point conversion.

Other cases in the coaches' cheat sheet are plain wrong, such as going for two when you’re up by four points. No! If you do, and it fails (65% likelihood), an opponent’s TD with a successful PAT puts them up by three, thus a late-game heroic FG only puts you into OT. Kentucky made this mistake earlier the season, and Texas made it against Nebraska on Saturday and it almost cost them.

Of course coaches like Brown (and Texas A&M’s Dennis Franchione) have shown blind devotion to their card. Brown once went for two up by 41 points late to Rice (to get it to an even 42) and Franchione did the same up by 22 points with four minutes remaining in a game.

In Div 1 football Saturday there were (at LoW’s count) ten two-point conversions, three succeeded — slightly under the commonly quoted averages between 37% and 42%.

Dissecting a few two-point conversion attempts this week:

• Kansas, up 19-0 vs Texas A&M with 12:43 remaining. Almost cost them. They failed. Making it a 2-1/2 possession game (two TDs with two-point conversions and a FG) instead of three TDs. A&M kicked a FG with 7:20 remaining (19-3), got a TD with a two-point conversion with 3:52 remaining (19-11) then lobbed a potentially game-tying pass in the endzone as time ran out. Close call, though not necessarily the wrong one.
• North Carolina State took the lead versus Virginia 29-24 with 8:24 remaining and failed on the two point conversion attempt. Right call though, if you’re guessing Virginia is more likely to get 31 points (with TD) than 30 points (with two FGs).
• Arizona down 39-41 at Washington with 10:05 remaining goes for two and ties it, rightly. They go on to win.

Now back to actual losing.

LOSER OF THE WEEK: NEBRASKA
No one is having a rougher year than Nebraska. Last week athletic director Steve Pederson got fired and replaced by icon Husker coach/Congressman Tom Osbourne, who has leaked out whispers of a 'new coaching staff' for 2008. (Justifiably) embattered coach Bill Callahan — who once gave a throat-slash gesture to a ref, and called OU fans "f***ing hillbillies" perhaps forgetting his home is no longer the East Bay — said he was doing an 'excellent' job this year (having been outscored 34-122 the past three games) and blamed job uncertainty (not the five losses) for some high-school recruits changing their minds to go to Lincoln.

Next came a road game, as 21-point underdogs, versus a Texas team that had seemed to be improving after a sloppy start. Everyone expected a blow out. But with 19 minutes to go, Nebraska had stunned the Texas crowd, up 17-3, and employed a blitz/blitz/blitz defense that sent Texas QB Colt McCoy, who is prone to wobbly legs after a hit or two, out of the game briefly. Texas pulled off long runs in the fourth, and held off a Neb rally.

One-sleeved Nebraska quarterback Sam Keller cried after the game, and defensive end Ben Eisenhart said, "Four losses in a row, it sucks. But we like football." Well, liking is a start. Coach Callahan needs to go. Still it's easy to respect how Big Red lost for a change.

Nebraska lost 25-28.

LOSER OF THE WEEK ARCHIVE

Week 8 The Curse of beating the Loser of the Week

Week 7 Risks of men not wearing a ponytail.

Week 6 Sweet moustache and TV.

Week 5 Picking Buckeyes, thanking god.

Week 4 Things to do in Tulsa.

Week 3 The world's greatest piece of art (in Canada).