After years of blissful fantasy football league fun, I’m excited for the fantasy draft this year more than ever. Typically, fantasy drafts are very formulaic processes where everyone pretty much knows how the first few rounds are going to play out, with a few exceptions here and there. For example, picking up Marques Colston in the late rounds last year made a huge difference for anyone who pulled the trigger on him. This year, however, so much is shaking up the first round orders that it’s going to be much more dynamic than any year I’ve ever seen in fantasy football.

First off, anyone who takes Peyton Manning early this year is a fool. With left tackle Tarik Glenn retiring and replacement Tony Ugoh looking bad in preseason, Manning will definitely have a downturn in numbers this year. Expect a lot of sacks and escaping the pocket (obviously not Manning’s game) this year. What was once a perennial cornerstone of fantasy offenses with consistent, great quarterback numbers week in and week out has become a question mark. The feeling around leagues from what I’m hearing has Tom Brady as the consistent quarterback that everyone wants this year, especially with the new receiving squad he has to throw to.

Larry Johnson also has become somewhat of a question mark. With a ridiculous and record setting 416 carries last year, expect some early wear and tear on those tires. Runningbacks who came close to that number of carries have never had a good follow up season in the history of the NFL. What was once a lock for first or second overall pick has become another question mark, especially with the extended preseason holdout. Priest Holmes coming back from injury gives some worries about a two-back system in Kansas City, and potentially makes Holmes worth picking up in later rounds just in case. Still, I expect Johnson to be a first rounder and will likely have a great season.

LaDainian Tomlinson still looks great as a consensus first overall pick (especially with so many teams converting to tandem back systems.) Stephen Jackson is arguably the smartest second pick, especially with Shaun Alexander getting a bit over the hill in runningback years. Brandon Jacobs might end up being a real sleeper as the full-time back with Tiki Barber gone, assuming the Giants can get their offense to gel this year with the most overrated quarterback on the planet in Eli Manning. Speaking of overrated quarterbacks, with Vick likely gone for the season we have another typically early fantasy draft pick removed.

McNabb also provides a real conundrum for drafters: do they gamble on the monstrous first half of the season they saw last year from him over the knee injury that cut his MVP type season short? With so many missed games due to injury over the last three years, McNabb is another traditionally safe fantasy pick who has suddenly become risky.

All in all this will be a rather strange year for fantasy drafts with some changing of the guards in terms of who goes in the first round and who gets passed over. The real winners will be those who aren’t afraid to pick up younger and lesser known names over the suddenly questionable stars.